Wednesday, April 05, 2017

Article 50, a new day

So finally the deed is done. The UK has triggered the process by which they will leave the EU.

For all the noise that is being heard from certain moronic individuals (no side being named), some things have become clearer (for those that didn't understand, or couldn't accept them):


  1. All of those EU laws that are so loathed will become UK laws. They don't disappear overnight, you get to keep them till MPs decide what, if anything, they want to do to change them.
  2. Despite assurances that a deal will be done, no one, and that means NO ONE, has any clue as to what if any deal will be done.
  3. Some car manufacturers have committed to on-going production in the UK despite the uncertainty. Great news. Just one thing to consider, companies can re-evaluate those decisions, and if the deal offered to the companies don't make up for any new problems in trade they can will production.
  4. There is talk now that the exit process will in fact take nearer to TEN YEARS. But the two year count down is ticking down daily.
  5. At the end of the two years anything traded into the EU will still, and always be, required to adhere to the standards they set. The UK will have no say in the setting of those standards, but don't worry we'll trade with other countries because that big a hole in the UK economy is easy to patch with no problems.
  6. There's no extra money anywhere to be had as a result of this.
  7. There is no assurance from the UK government that those EU grants to the poorer regions or to farmers will be maintained.
  8. The £ has lost around 10-15% of it's value against the $ and €, but there's no obvious boost in manufacturing output as a result of goods from the UK costing less abroad.
  9. The same loss of value means everything obtained from abroad is going to cost more, if you haven't noticed it yet, it's coming. Big companies hedge costs, and will have had contracts to maintain a price/cost. Contracts end and new ones are needed.
  10. Remember the global oil price is in $, though there are fluctuations on that prices if we haven't had the 10% price increase yet, it's coming.
  11. Those "bankers" that are to blame for everything (yes that's sarcasm, they have their share of responsibility but by no means are responsible for all the problems), well good riddance to them as they move to EU locations due to controls on € clearing. Those salaries, that tax income, it can all sod off because the UK doesn't need it (more sarcasm). 
  12. The UK economy has not gone into recession, there's been no emergency budget. The fear campaign from the remain side has been proven wrong. Or did they get their timing wrong? Just keep in mind that after the referendum nothing has changed in terms of trade. There was a shock that the Bank of England moved to calm. Until the exit negotiations show what will be most economic activity will continue as normal.
 To those who say "it's done, be silent", do re-engage your brain for a moment, and remember that the UK is a democracy where people are entitle to voice their views whether you agree with them or not.

The UK was one of the poorest EU countries when the rebate was secured, the improvement in the UK economically has come while being part of the EU to be come the 2nd or 3rd richest (depending on exchange rates).

Just some thoughts.

What will be only tomorrow knows.